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I am a Senior Economist at the Central Bank of Ireland, having returned from the European Central Bank in 2026. My research focuses on banking, artificial intelligence, financial stability, systemic risk, and the international transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks.

Research interests Banking, artificial intelligence, financial stability, systemic risk, investment dynamics, and international macro-financial transmission

Research | CV | Data | Contact

Publications

The Macroeconomics of AI Capacity: Insights from a Two-Asset Growth Model (2026)
Jonathan Rice
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 30, e22
Cambridge Core DOI

A two-asset growth model of AI capacity, hardware obsolescence, investment dynamics, and welfare-relevant policy tradeoffs.

Riding the Rate Wave: Interest Rate and Run Risks in Euro Area Banks During the 2022-2023 Monetary Cycle (2026)
Jonathan Rice, Giulia Maria Guerrini
Journal of International Money and Finance, 160, 103444
Journal ECB Working Paper SSRN VoxEU SUERF Policy Brief

Evidence on how the 2022-2023 tightening cycle affected euro area banks’ economic net worth and deposit-run risk.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks in Small Open Economies: A Case Study of Ireland (2023)
Jonathan Rice
The Economic and Social Review, 54(4), 217-245
Journal PDF Data

An empirical study of how policy uncertainty shocks transmit through a small open economy.

All research outputs

Work in Progress

  • Euro Area Investment Patterns and Exposure to AI-dependent Firms, with Raffaele Giuliana, Giulia Maria Guerrini and Mikael Hagelstam.
    Draft available on request

  • Structural Scenario Analysis with Granular Stress Testing Models, with Juan Rubio Ramirez.
    Draft available on request

Data

I maintain the Ireland Economic Policy Uncertainty Index dataset and related materials. See the Data page, and the external project page at https://www.policyuncertainty.com/ireland_rice.html.